Ian Lurie // Nov 12 2013
Disclaimer: I’m not an analyst. I’m not a master marketing prognosticator. But sometimes it’s fun to look at a company and ask “If this went perfectly, what would it look like?” That’s what I’m doing here. Don’t buy stock based on my ramblings. Please.
Yep, Twitter’s gone public. They’re now TWTR. (Which I find funny, since you remove vowels for more spc on the twtrs). Their stock skyrocketed the first day on the market, going from $26 to $47. Now it’s down to $40; still that’s darn good. But folks are still wondering: Are those funny little 140-character missives for real?
Twitter can succeed. Their service has a large user base, a lot of demographic data, an effective advertising system and a ton of potential. But they face some significant risks:
Twitter does have a huge advantage: Facebook is shedding younger users. And Twitter’s unbundled model is more attractive to those users. So, I’m a believer. I think Twitter will make it over the long haul. But they could blow past ‘make it’ and thrive if any one of the following happened:
Very few marketers understand how to use Twitter as a marketing tool. And Twitter users don’t want ads. Heck, they flipped out when Twitter added a new image format (I am part of ‘they,’ I must admit).
But this seeming disadvantage makes it unique, and immensely powerful. Twitter is a content promotion utility, not a sales channel. It closes the ‘last mile’ between the great content everyone’s always telling us to produce and real value for businesses trying to grow their audience.
So, instead of trying to say, “Hey, we’re as good as Google and Facebook!” Twitter should say, “Hey, we are nothing like Google and Facebook!”
Marketers have plenty of aggravations with those networks. Give us a real alternative, and we’ll show up.
Twitter owns the concept of the hashtag. Hashtags are those words or short phrases with ‘#’ before them, like ‘#politics’ or ‘#til’ (This I Learned). Twitter users can see all of the tweets that include a particular hashtag. That lets them see an entire conversation, sometimes by thousands of people, all at once.
But they need to do more with this concept: Right now, if you’re not in the know, you may not be able to find a useful hashtag. Or, once you find one, you may not know how to follow tweets around it. Twitter needs to provide a consumer-friendly way to look through hashtag ‘channels,’ and otherwise integrate the concept more tightly into their service. That will make the concept more digestible, and build the service’s value.
Hashtags seem like a byproduct, but Twitter needs to build on the true value of ‘#.’
Twitter really excels at letting fans share opinions, talk to each other, or just rant and rave. Twitter discussions around TV shows prove this time and again. But you’ll also see a lot of activity around events in the sports, political or fandom worlds.
The key: Twitter needs to integrate more tightly with events, rather than topics. Facebook owns the topical space, but it doesn’t seem to do as well as around specific events. When folks watch a TV show or observe an event, they turn to Twitter.
So, Twitter needs to:
Google makes a lot of money. As companies go, they currently look like one of history’s great successes. But they’re already showing cracks in their cultural facade. Google’s IPO inevitably changed the company. But in their case, it was for the worse: A drive for higher revenue meant more ads, fewer search results and sometimes compromised search quality.
Google can cry all the way to the bank, of course, and their search results are still arguably the best. But their IPO took them away from customers and instead got them focused on investors whose only goal is a higher stock price. Twitter can take a valuable lesson from Google: Let the IPO change you. That’s inevitable. But stay focused on your customers, not your investors.
…where Twitter will land in the long-term. But they have the potential to be something truly unique. Here’s hoping they get there, because this space could use more viable alternatives.
Ian Lurie is founder and CEO of Portent Inc., an internet marketing agency that has provided internet marketing, including PPC, SEO, social and analytics services, since 1995. Read More