2010 Trends to Ignore: How I did (not great)

Ian Lurie

Well, 2010 was interesting.
On the down side: Kidney stones and the ER; a wasp attack; head explosions.
On the up side: A fantastic year for my family; a great year for my company; a terrific team that’s kicking butt.
But how’d I do with my predictions for 2010? Let’s see:

  1. Bing versus Google. I predicted Bing would flop. Eh – Bing now has 12% of the market. Not exactly beating Google’s door down, but at least they didn’t end up relaunching under a new name like, I dunno, Live. 75% for me.
  2. Yahoo!. I said Yahoo! was done for. And what do you know – they’re done for. 100% for me!
  3. Mobile advertising. I said people would ask ‘is it making money’ and then stop using it. People, apparently, don’t care if it’s making money. So they kept spending money on mobile. 10% for me.
  4. Web 3.0 The term didn’t die, but at least it didn’t take off. 65%.
  5. Apple vs. Microsoft. I said it’d be Apple vs. Google in 2010, not Apple vs. Microsoft. Worth a B: 85%.
  6. Boutique content sites. All bad for the boutique sites. Content sweatshops like eHow are winning. Which sucks. But worth an A-. I said they’d win. 90%
  7. Corporate social media policies. I’d had high hopes that one big traditional company. One. Just. One. would get their head out of their tuchus and embrace social media. ‘Embrace’ means ‘approach with affection’, not ‘approach like it has an STD’. Alas. F+ for Ian. 30%
  8. Augmented reality. Failed. Utterly. 100% for me..
  9. Google real time search. My exact quote from a year ago: “Eventually, we’ll all realize that a real-time stream of poo is still poo”. Eventually hasn’t happened. The hype continues. 30% for me.
  10. Green marketing. Should’ve died. Keeps going strong. Sigh. 0% for me.
  11. “Don’t be evil”. Hm. Haven’t heard that quote from the Googlers in a while. I said it’d starved to death for want of attention. Google frapped their rankings and is well on their way to becoming a data dictatorship. But I’ll still keep buying Adwords. 100% right, but -20% for being a hypocrite.

Yikes. 60% for the year. I passed.
My prediction for 2011? I will not be making any predictions.

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Ian Lurie

Ian Lurie is the founder of Portent. He's been a digital marketer since the days of AOL and Compuserve (25 years, if you're counting). Ian's recorded training for Lynda.com, writes regularly for the Portent Blog and has been published on AllThingsD, Smashing Magazine, and TechCrunch. Ian speaks at conferences around the world, including SearchLove, MozCon, Seattle Interactive Conference and ad:Tech. He has published several books about business and marketing: One Trick Ponies Get Shot, available on Kindle, The Web Marketing All-In-One Desk Reference for Dummies, and Conversation Marketing. Ian is now an independent consultant and continues to work with the Portent team- training the agency group on all things digital. You can find him at www.ianlurie.com

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  1. Augmented reality is starting to show up in greeting cards now. Which I actually think is neat, since AR is kind of a frivolous thing anyway, thus greeting cards are an appropriate use of the medium.

  2. Ah, honesty.
    I read your blog, Ian, for the honesty. And I KNOW you’re being honest when you say, “I didn’t nail this last year, so I’m not even doing it this year!”
    So congratulations on that! I keep reading, even when you’re wrong in your predictions (and sly The-World-Is-Ending political commentaries)!

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